Election Night Live Blog

Keep refreshing that page, because the boys of the Finest Bagels Blog will be live blogging tonight’s results.  Martinis standing by….

Tom (7:40pm) – CNN just called the Senate race for Rob Portman, my moderate Republican heart is singing!

John (7:41pm) – Looks like Marco Rubio is going to win as well. A Democratic Senate doesn’t look good.

Tom (7:44pm) – I have Trump winning New Hampshire, North Carolina, Florida, and Ohio.  But Clinton will still win the Presidency (275-263)

John (7:47pm) – Pizza is here, and I’m 4 drinks in. Let’s rock and roll, America!

John (7:48pm) – Florida is giving me a heart attack. Miami-Dade county is giving me heart attacks. Clinton needs to run up the score more.

Tom (7:52pm) – I’m not as worried about Florida, Clinton can win with out it.  Although if she does win there, we can all go to bed early

Winston (7:55pm) – CNN predicts that South Carolina goes to Trump, seems Hillary still has more to go.

Tom (8:00pm) – anyone want to make a bet on DC?

John (8:03pm) – CNN called Maryland an important win for Clinton… I think they meant inevitable…

Tom (8:06pm) – Well, if things keep up like this the only interesting part of tonight will be the Senate races

John (8:09 pm) – Clinton is doing surprisingly well in Western North Carolina from CNN’s map

Tom (8:11pm) – It will also be interesting to see if Johnson or Stine can get to the magic 5% number.  They are playing for 2020 at this point

Winston (8:13pm) – CNN makes the bold statement that Democrats do better in more populated places.

John (8:14pm) – Yeah Florida is going to be a roller coaster….

Winston (8:15pm) – Are we gonna see a repeat of 2000?

John (8:17pm) – Pinellas County in Florida will be interesting. Home of Largo, St. Petersburg, and Clearwater (semi-urban areas) but it’s leaning Trump right now.

John (8:21pm) – What are all these ads! Show me more election stuff CNN!

Winston (8:22pm) – Florida is going to make me need a Tom martini.

Tom (8:24pm) – as if you need an excuse *clink.*

John (8:25pm) – Duckworth (D-IL), Blumenthal (D-CT), Van Hollen (D-MD), Langford (R-OK), and Rubio (R-FL) all to win their respective Senate seats. No real surprises there, Maybe Duckworth in Illinois though.

John (8:28pm) – Fun Fact: The Senator named Burr from North Carolina is actually a distant relative of Aaron Burr, the guy who shot Hamilton. This is not a joke, this is an actual fun fact.

Winston (8:29pm) – “actual fun fact”

Tom (8:31pm) – SC and AL weren’t really a surprise, but those numbers in TX are looking interesting. If there is enough Latino turnout, things might be REALLY interesting

Winston (8:32pm) – SC is a disappointment but we should look towards Blitzer, Interrupter in Chief, for salvation.

John (8:36pm) – When is CNN going to update us on Maryland’s Constitutional Amendment ballot question?!?!? (I’ll spare you the lecture on why we shouldn’t institutionalize political parties).

Tom (8:38pm) – VA looks bad, but I have a feeling things will change once more votes start coming in from NoVa and the Beltway counties

Tom (8:40pm) CNN early exits have Trump at 27 percent with Hispanics–same as Romney…I need a refill

Winston (8:41pm) CNN showing that Clinton is winning NC? Will North and South flip?

John (8:43pm) – In my blog post I mentioned electoral re-alignment, I’m guessing by 2024, New England will be a battle ground, with the West, Southwest, and Mid-Atlantic being reliably Democratic and the Rust Belt, South, and Midwest being reliably Republican. A few governorships and some state houses in the Southwest will help the Dems repeal some voter ID laws and really turn that part of the country blue.

Wintson (8:49pm) – In this CNN break I think it’s important to note that the real third party presence is not Johnson or Stein but  Evan McMullin.

John (8:52pm) – Evan McMullin is the reason I said Utah may actually go Trump. I smell a spoiler.

John (8:55pm) – Did Wolf Blitzer just say “Democrat-leaning Commies”  ???

John (8:58pm) – Still alarmed by Pinellas County in Florida. Trump is DRAMATICALLY out-doing Romney’s 2012 performance there.

Tom (9:00pm) – I’m not worried about FL yet.  They are still counting in the south and that’s Clinton territory.  If she is going to win, that’s where the votes will come from

Winston (9:01pm) – I’m a much more worried man than Tom. I’m making the call that Trump will win FL and VA. I hope I’m wrong.

John (9:03pm) – In the past hour CNN has referred to Arkansas, Illinois, and New York all as “Hillary Clinton’s home state.”

John (9:04pm) – *SCREAMING *  PINELLLLLAAAAASSSSS COUNTYYYYYYYY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Tom (9:06pm) – NPR just called TX for Trump, there goes my theory…

John (9:12pm) – The fact that Clinton even gave Trump the slightest hesitation in Texas is amazing. Also, no way Johnson hits the 5% he needs.

Winston (9:19pm) – I love how Blitzer is carrying a notepad as if he is taking real notes.

John (9:24pm) – Clinton’s biggest strongholds in Virginia have a disproportionate number of unreported precincts. Overwhelmed by a huge Clinton turnout surge? A kid can dream.

John (9:30pm) – I’m surprised Barbara Comstock (R-VA) is doing so well in Virginia’s 10th though…

Tom (9:33pm) – I’ m hoping that maybe I’ll just wake up and it will actually be January 2015, that all of this turns out just to be a bad dream

John (9:38pm) – Tim Kaine had one job: to deliver Virginia. Currently he is failing.

John (9:40pm) – Connecticut for Clinton and Louisiana for Trump. No surprise there.

Tom (9:45pm) – Looks like the GOP will keep the House… this mean that Paul Ryan is going to have a rough day tomorrow no matter who wins the White House

Tom (9:52pm) – I mean the Cubs won the World Series, anything is possible…

John (9:53pm) – I need more election results.

John (9:54pm) – My mouth to Wolf Blitzer’s ears… Clinton is now leading in Virginia.

John (9:57pm) – Johnson doesn’t look like he’ll hit the desired 5%, but he’s definitely having an impact. About 4% so far in Wisconsin, similar numbers in VA.

Tom (10:04pm) – Wow.  John might actually be right about WI and MI…obviously I need a stronger drink if I’m going to get through this night.

Tom (10:10pm) – The election betting websites are now giving better odds to Trump than to Clinton.  Usually a pretty good indicator  (https://electionbettingodds.com/)

John (10:19pm) – To counter that, if anyone is familiar with the so-called Redskins Rule, Clinton should win tonight. The Redskins beat the Eagles 27-20 at home two weeks ago. (The Redskins Rule states that when the Washington D.C. NFL team wins its last home game before the election, the incumbent party wins the presidency).

Tom (10:22pm) – The Clinton team just tweeted a message saying “This team has so much to be proud of. Whatever happens tonight, thank you for everything.”  I have a bad feeling this is Team Clinton trying to come to terms with some bad news

John (10:26pm) – Ohio called for Trump just now. So far this is following my prediction map, but if I worked for Clinton I’d be sweating bullets right now. She absolutely NEEDS Florida right now.

Tom (10:29pm) – The Hill just called VA for Clinton, this is incredibly important.  Clinton couldn’t win without it

John (10:32pm) – Clinton currently needs Florida, or Wisconsin, or Michigan to break her way for her campaign to stay alive. None looking good for her right now.

Tom (10:34pm) – John McCain just won re-election in AZ.  It will be interesting to see how this pans out for Clinton.  So far its not looking like there is much split ticket voting.

John (10:36pm) – Clinton currently up by 5% in Colorado, absolutely owning Denver and it’s suburbs. Similar story with Iowa City and Eastern Iowa.

John (10:38pm) – The Hill and PBS News Hour now calling Colorado for Hillary, so there ya go.

John (10:44pm) – While Tom facetimes with his friends, I’ll let you know that Nate Silver’s 538 blog’s snake graph (which I love) now has Trump winning.

Tom (10:47pm) – Just got off the phone with my friend up in MI.  He is a Dem Opp and has assured me that the vote in three of MI’s largest counties have not been counted yet. Info might be a bit old, but it is interesting.

Tom (10:49pm) – CA just approved recreational marijuana. Might be necessary after tonight…

John (10:52pm) – Washington Post is now calling Florida for Trump. So, President Trump?

John (10:54pm) – NPR and The Hill and PBS News Hour and NBC all also calling Florida for Trump. CNN Possibly gun shy because of 2000 Florida debacle. This election may be over.

John (10:55pm) – PINELLAS COUNTTTTTYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY

Tom (10:58pm) – Ron Johnson just won the senate seat in MI, this means that the Democrats will not win the Senate.  If the trend of other states continue, it also means that MI is likely to go for Trump.  Meaning Trump will be our next President.

John (11:03pm) – This just in: The Finest Bagels Blog scooped CNN on Clinton’s “We’re proud of our team” tweet.

Tom (11:05pm) – BREAKING NEWS: CA and HI go for Clinton, no one in the room is surprised…

John (11:07pm) – Clinton seriously underperforming in strong Democratic areas and must-win battleground areas in Michigan and Florida (see: Wayne and PINELLAS counties). A Trump presidency looks ever more likely.

John (11:17pm) – Clinton Team hasn’t said anything on Twitter in 2 hours, nothing since their “proud of our team” tweet.

Tom (11:20pm) – Clinton’s team took the African American vote for granted. Complacently kills campaigns, and it is showing up in this election…

Tom (11:21pm) – Senate and House are going Republican.  If Trump wins he is going to have a unified government.  Obama’s legacy is on the line.

John (11:23pm) – Utah looks like its leaning Trump. 48/50 isn’t bad on a projection 24 hours out, can’t say I’m happy though.

John (11:24pm) – Clinton is gaining in Michigan. Michigan starting to look like a must-win for Clinton. Gains for Clinton largely driven by precincts reporting from Michigan’s most populous (read: urbanized and minority-heavy) counties.

Tom (11:29) – A tie in the electoral college is actually becoming possible. If Clinton is able to carry MI, Penn, NH, and NV she could off set Trump winning WI, sending the election to the House of Representatives.

John (11:32pm) – To clarify: in an Electoral lack of majority, the House of Representatives would choose a President from the three candidates with the most electoral votes. Right now that would still just be Trump and Clinton. The Representatives vote as a delegation per state, and that would almost certainly end in a Trump presidency.

Tom (11:39pm) – Trump wins FL.  If Clinton doesn’t win WI, MI, NH or NV  its over

John (11:40pm) – PINELLAS COUNTTTTTTTTYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY

John (11:43pm) – Fox News has Wisconsin for Trump, but they seem to be the only ones calling Wisconsin so far. They may have jumped the gun but I wouldn’t be surprised at this point.

John (11:44pm) – Looks like I’ll be right on both the Nebraska 2nd and Maine 2nd Congressional districts with split electoral votes. Do I get bonus points for that?

Tom (11:47pm) – John, no.  And this just in Mass approved recreational pot use, at least they will have something to take the edge off this election night.

John (11:49pm) – Wolf Blitzer says a call of Georgia for Trump is “an important update.”

Tom (11:51pm) – Barack Obama has not been able to consistently get people out to vote for anyone but Barack Obama. https://twitter.com/ddayen/status/796212340664442880

John (11:56pm) – Tom and I just spent some time playing around with the electoral map. It looks like Trump is going to be our next President…

John (11:57pm) – Per CNN, people crying at Clinton HQ.

Tom (12:00am) – If Trump wins this election, it will be the last election the GOP wins in a long time. White non-college educated males is not a sustainable electoral strategy.

Tom (12:03am) – to contradict everything I just said: the 538 blog –> “There’s going to be a lot of talk about white voters after the election, but looking at the exit polls, that’s not the full story. A big part of the story is that Clinton underperformed Obama with blacks and Hispanics. Clinton is winning only 88 percent of the black vote. Exit polls in 2012 had Obama at 93 percent. Clinton is only at 65 percent among Latinos. Obama won 71 percent of them.”

John (12:06am) – It’s tomorrow.

John (12:07am) – Also: “Do you think the Clinton campaign even has a concession speech?” -Tom

John (12:09am) – Trump takes the strategically insignificant but symbolically important Iowa. A state he lost soundly in the primary now gives him a clean sweep of the Midwest. The state that launched Obama’s national politics career now goes to one of the champions of the Birther Movement.

John (12:14am) – If Wolf Blitzer calls something a “cliff hanger” one more time… It’s not a good book Wolf, its our country’s future.

Tom (12:16am) – “Immediately after the Brexit vote, British political scientist Rob Ford offered a thought that seems fitting here. He asked whether people were feeling like strangers in their own country — and said that’s how people voting for Brexit have felt for years. Seems like it has an analog here in the States.” – Nate Silver

Tom (12:17am) – Brexit has come to America, and its a brave new world…

John (12:23am) – CNN mentioned the “hidden” Trump vote which I have been personally afraid of but haven’t mentioned on the blog yet. The idea that Trump was polling more poorly than actuality because of people being ashamed to tell pollsters they were voting for Trump.

Tom (12:26am) – Clinton won Nevada, the drinking continues…

John (12:27 am) – So I won’t have another “Nevada Moment.” (In 2012 I lost a slap bet when I wrongly predicted that Romney would win Nevada [THE STATE IS 30% MORMON OKAY!]).

John (12:28pm) – With 80% of precincts reporting, Clinton is ahead by less than 100 votes in New Hampshire.

John (12:32pm) – Trump now ahead in New Hampshire by 15 votes. Victory for either candidate could hinge on New Hampshire, but it seems unlikely.

John (12:33pm) – CNN: “People were laughing when Trump said his road to victory ran through the Rust Belt.” I wasn’t laughing. Plenty of disgruntled working class, uneducated, white households in those states.

Tom (12:35am) – CNN just called the NV senate seat for the Democrats.  It is looking like the trend of straight ticket voting is continuing

John (12:39am) – Trump has 249 electoral votes locked up, Clinton has 216. 77 Electoral votes up for grabs. This election is not over yet for either candidate.

John (12:44am) – CNN: “We haven’t talked about race. This is a whitelash.” -Van Jones

John (12:46am) – Whoever loses tonight will have to face the fact that their party is facing a major split. Both parties are facing splits (the alt-right vs the establishment for the GOP, liberal wing vs relative moderates for the Dems), but victory makes a lot of party problems go away. The loser will have to face that challenge tomorrow morning.

Tom (12:50am) – Unfortunately, this isn’t all about Comey’s last-minute surprise, it has much more to do with deep seating issues in the country. Note: This “October Surprise” wasn’t that much of a surprise.

John (1:02am) – Trump needs to win Pennsylvania or any two of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona. He’s leading in all of the above right now right now.

Tom (1:03am) – If Trump wins all of the available states, which he well might, he’ll take over 300 electoral college votes.

John (1:05am) – Tom’s laptop died and Winston went to bed hours ago, so it’ll be mostly me from here out.

John (1:08am) – Utah has now been widely called for Trump. So much for the McMullin Effect.

John (1:10am) – Trump has a healthy lead in many of the states he needs to win, but Clinton is leading in Maine and Minnesota right now. The race is still on, but the numbers favor Trump.

John (1:13am) – If they stopped counting votes right now, the election Trump would win about 309-229. Maine and Nebraska floating votes still a little in confusion, but no doubt it would be a decisive victory.

John (1:15am) – Trump actually leading popular vote by about 1 million right now.

John (1:17am) – CNN now talking about dynamics in the two prospective transition teams. It might be a while before there are any more substantive updates.

John (1:24am) – Trump leading by about 1% in Pennsylvania with 97% of precincts reporting. If he wins there, that’s the ballgame.

John (1:25am) – UPDATE: Clinton now ahead in New Hampshire, which would keep her alive even if Trump wins in Pennsylvania.

John (1:33am) – “When I came on to the Trump campaign in January no one thought Donald Trump would be president … He is going to win the presidency tonight.” -Corey Lewandowski

John (1:37am) – Chants of “F*** Donald Trump” outside the White House https://twitter.com/apblake/status/796227760293380096

John (1:39am) – “Boo Hoo, NH is 4 votes” -Friend of mine who has clearly done a better job accepting tonight than me

John (1:40am) – Apparently the last time the GOP held the House, the Senate, and the Presidency was just before the Great Depression.

John (1:43am) – Trump ahead by 76k votes with 96% reporting in Pennsylvania. Healthy lead for him in Arizona. That would be enough to win. Slim Leads for him in WI, MI, WI. Slim leads for Clinton in ME, NH, AZ.

John (1:45am) – For those looking for a slim sign of hope, Oregon elected the country’s first openly-LGBT governor (Other LGBT governors have been elected but came out after election).

John (1:46am) – Clinton Twitter still quiet. Same from from Trump.

John (1:50am) – WOLF BLITZER SAID CLIFFHANGER AGAIN!!!!!!! PINELLASS COUNTYYYYYYY

John (1:51am) – New York Times has Pennsylvania for Trump, which has been looking pretty likely for a while.

John (1:52am) – The road just got significantly tougher for Clinton with PA to Trump. It ain’t over till it’s over but looks like a Trump Presidency to me.

John (1:53am) – Trump up 2% in MI with 85% reporting, up 3% in WI with 90% reporting, 4% in AZ with 67% reporting. Clinton still clinging to slim leads in NH, ME, MN.

John (1:55am) – As it stands, Trump at approximately 305, Clinton at approx. 233. Ryan has reportedly called Trump and Pence to congratulate them, per The Hill http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/305116-ryan-calls-trump-pence-as-election-results-come-in.

John (1:58am) – Per NPR, Canada’s immigration website has been down for hours.

John (1:59am) – Election coverage has been turned off the TV’s at Clinton’s “Victory Party.”

John (2:00am) – Per CNN, all precincts reporting out of Detroit, very few votes left to be had out of Michigan. Michigan will likely be called for Trump soon, putting him over the 270 hurdle.

John (2:01am) – Chants of “lock her up” at Trump Victory Party.

Intern (2:02am) – John is going to the bathroom! I’m in charge now.

Intern (2:03am) – Campaign chair John Podesta speaks at Clinton HQ, telling Clinton supporters to go home and get some sleep before they have more to say tomorrow. He thanks the crowd for their support: “Your voices and your enthusiasm mean so much to [Hillary] and to Tim and to all of us…thank you for all you have done.”

Intern (2:05am) – Corey Lewandowski calls for Hillary to call Trump immediately to congratulate him for his win.

Intern (2:06am) – Live on CNN, Van Jones says to Corey Lewandowski, “you won” and attempts to console parents trying to figure out how to explain results to their children.

John (2:08am) – Clinton to not speak tonight.

Intern (2:09am) – Evan McMullin calling for conservatives to abandon the GOP in the face of Trump Presidency (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/josh-rogin/wp/2016/11/09/evan-mcmullin-conservatives-must-now-abandon-the-republican-party/)

John (2:14am) – Trump to win Maine 2nd district, Clinton to get rest of Maine’s electoral votes.

John (2:15am) – Roy Blunt (R-MO) to win election. This should please Tom.

John (2:21am) – “How did this happen?” -Intern

Intern (2:23am) – Republicans officially keeps hold of the Senate.

John (2:24am) – “Joe Biden is probably eating a gallon of ice cream right now” -Intern

John (2:25am) – This election is over, it’s just a matter of making it official.

John (2:26am) – Right now I have Trump winning 318-220, assuming Clinton wins the Nebraska 2nd, but Don Bacon (R) is leading there, so Clinton may not win that electoral vote.

John (2:30am) – CNN just called Wisconsin for Trump. It was only a matter of time. Michigan or Pennsylvania will do it now (PA on the hesitation of waiting for more sources to corroborate the NYT call for Trump).

John (2:32am) – Per Rolling Out Magazine, Kamala Harris (D-CA) was just elected to the U.S. Senate, the first African-American woman elected to that body since 1991 (https://twitter.com/rollingout/status/796219686736293888)

John (2:34am) – The Hill, USA Today, Washington Post, NPR, all declaring Trump victory. Something we’ve known for a while but hoped against all the same.

John (2:36am) – BBC, AP, and Politico all pile on with declarations of Trump victory.

John (2:39am) – CNN still hesitating to call the election. Definite hesitation from 2000. What a bunch of morons, they’ve been 10 minutes behind all night.

John (2:39am) – CNN reporting that Clinton has called Donald Trump to concede the election. I take it all back, good scoop CNN.

John (2:43am) – Arizona officially projected to go Trump. He technically has 268 electoral votes but… c’mon. It’s over.

John (2:45am) – Mike Pence takes the stage at Trump HQ in New York.

John (2:45am) – “The American People have spoken, and the American People have elected their new champion.” -Mike Pence

John (2:46am) – USA chant breaks out during Pence speech.

John (2:48am) – Trump taking the stage now for what is presumably his acceptance speech.

John (2:53am) – This is a surprisingly calm and demure speech from the President-Elect, Mr. Trump.

John (2:55am) – “We will be willing to get along with all the nations willing to get along with us … we will no longer accept anything less than the best for America” -President-Elect Trump

John (2:58am) – “This political stuff is very nasty, very rough” -Trump. Are these the words of a man who is trying to change tones?

John (3:00am) – Audio and visual from CNN cut out briefly just then…

John (3:03am) – This victory speech is starting to sound like a Donald J. Trump apology tour. Clearly either he or his staff has a mind to changing his tone and image before the election.

John (3:06am) – Well. Donald J. Trump has been elected the next President of the United States.

John (3:07am) – Goodnight.

Expect a followup blog post in the coming days from us at The Finest Bagels Blog to wrap up what has been a tumultuous and surprising election season.

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